Forecasts play a vital role in decision-making in the energy sector. Forecasting in the energy sector is a challenging task due to the large number of highly uncertain variables that is typically needed to forecast. On top of this, the energy transition is introducing new uncertainties which elevate the importance of accurate forecasting while making the task more difficult. The paper examines the key forecasting challenges against this backdrop from the perspective of an industry practitioner and introduces a systematic five-step approach to understanding, evaluating, and improving forecasts. Simplified use cases are presented which demonstrate that the five-step approach can generate commercial insights and improvements in forecast performance.
Read Articleby