What Drives Gold Prices?
By Robert Barsky, Ph.D., Senior Economist and Economic Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Craig Epstein, Research Assistant, Reserve Bank of Chicago; Adrian Lafont-Mueller, Senior Analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and Younggeun Yoo, Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, University of Chicago
A half century after gold ceased to play a significant formal role in the international monetary system, it still captures a great deal of attention in the financial press and the popular imagination. Yet there has been very little scrutiny of the primary factors determining the price of gold since its dollar price was first allowed to vary freely in 1971. In this article, the authors attempt to fill in that gap by highlighting three considerations that are commonly cited as drivers of gold prices: inflationary expectations, real interest rates, and pessimism about future macroeconomic conditions.Read Article